Will the outbreak of oil prices double-hit a new round of global financial crisis?

Will the outbreak of oil prices double-hit a new round of global financial crisis?
The global spread of the epidemic spreads the crude oil “Black Swan”. On March 9, the global market suffered a black Monday. US stocks were suddenly melted and global stock markets plunged.Behind the sharp fluctuations in the stock market is a global panic. This new coronary pneumonia epidemic has already affected the global market. Is the sharp drop in oil prices even worse?Is the global financial crisis coming again?Judging from the interviews of Sauna and Yewang, there has been no precedent in the history of the global economic recession or the continued plunge of the financial market due to epidemics. Experts believe that this epidemic is in contradiction with the background of the global crisis, and it is difficult to trigger a sustained crisis.Does the global stock market shock panic continue?Expert: The stock market may continue to fluctuate and drop this Monday. International crude oil prices have fallen sharply due to the failure to reach an output reduction agreement at the OPEC meeting.On the evening of Monday, the average of the three major U.S. stock market indexes fell. The opening of the three major indexes fell by only about 4 minutes, and the S & P 500 index fell 7%, triggering the first layer of fuse mechanism and trading suspension for 15 minutes.This is the second trigger fuse in the history of US stocks. The first trigger fuse occurred in 1997.The final close, the three major US stock indexes closed down more than 7%, the Dow fell more than 2000 points, a decline of 7.79%; S & P 500 index fell by 7.60%; the Nasdaq fell by 7.29%.Among them, the Dow and S & P 500 both recorded the largest single-day decline since 2008.In contrast, the average value of the Nikkei 225 index in the German composite index fell by more than 4%.The German DAX index, the French CAC40 index, and the British FTSE 100 index all fell more than 7%; the South Korean composite index, the Nikkei 225 index all fell more than 4%.The biggest shock factor in global capital markets is crude oil and epidemic situation.Since the OPEC + meeting last weekend did not reach an agreement on the extension of production cuts, Saudi Arabia started the “oil price war”, which lowered the price of oil exports and increased production significantly.International oil prices fell across the board on Monday, WTI crude oil futures closed down 26.74% reported 30.24 US dollars / barrel, cloth oil closed down 26.18% reported 33.USD 42 per barrel.Both recorded the largest single-day decline since the 1991 Gulf War.The plunge in oil prices triggered a chain effect on the financial markets. The Middle East stock market was the first to be affected last Sunday, and the global stock market fell collectively on Monday.At the same time, the global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has further escalated.At present, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 100,000. The rate of increase in cases in China has been slowing down, while the number of cases outside China is still increasing rapidly.According to the latest data released by the World Health Organization, there will be an additional 45 cases in China within one day from March 8th to 9th, and 3948 cases outside China. The epidemic has spread to 104 countries or regions.On Monday Italy has announced the closure of the country.When the epidemic was mainly concentrated in China, the surrounding stock markets were significantly affected.Since February 20, U.S. stocks have continued to decline. The Dow fell from above 29,000 to about 25,000 at the end of February. It had fallen by about 13% before the crude oil shock.The current market panic is intensifying, and the CBOE panic index VIX closed up about 30% on Monday at 54.46, for the first time since December 2008 to re-close above 50.Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told the sauna and Yeenet that the previous situation of China ‘s epidemic and China ‘s experience have provided reference models for other economies. The response measures of other economies can take a lot of detours, and the epidemic is developingThe economies of economies and sub-developed economies may have relatively low scale diffusion.Therefore, the probability of the epidemic becoming a global economic crisis is still relatively low.However, because various prevention and control measures will affect economic activities, it will have a certain impact on the economy in the short term. For capital markets overseas that look at performance, it is reasonable to see a certain degree of adjustment.Pan Xiangdong believes that after this plunge, the global market may usher in a short-term technical repair, but because the overseas epidemic is still serious, the stock market may continue to fall volatilely.A new round of global financial crisis is coming?Expert: There is no precedent for the global recession caused by the pandemic. Since the development of the epidemic, several international agencies have successively lowered their global economic growth expectations.On January 20, the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook” report predicted that the global economic growth in 2020 is expected to be 3.3%; a month later, the IMF president said that this year’s global economic growth will be reduced by 0.1 excellent to 3.2%.On February 6, the well-known consulting agency IHSMarkit released a report saying that if China’s current prevention and control measures are gradually cancelled from March, then the world’s first quarter of real GDP will decrease by 0.8%, will decrease by 0 in the second quarter.5%; In 2020, the global real GDP will decrease by 0 every year.4%.On March 2, the report of the OECD (OECD) will predict the global economic growth rate from 2020 before the outbreak.9% reduced to 2.4%; if the duration of the new crown blight is prolonged and the intensity is increased, the increase in 2020 may replace 1.5%.On March 6, the Asian Development Bank released a report. According to its prediction, the outbreak will cause global economic losses of between 77 billion and 347 billion US dollars, accounting for 0% of global GDP.1% -0.4%.Among them, two-thirds of the impact falls on China.Does this mean the arrival of a new round of global financial crisis?Historically, since the industrial revolution, the crisis of the capitalist world has continued, and has affected the world. The two most destructive global crises are the Great Depression in the 1930s and the 2008 global financial crisis.The “Comparative Study of Two Global Crises” edited by Liu He pointed out that the two great crises have in common that after the major technological revolution occurred, the major technological revolution caused a great prosperity, and the great prosperity brought about a great depression.Before the outbreak of the crisis, the governments where the crisis originated had adopted extremely laissez-faire economic policies.At the same time, both crises were linked to monetary policy. Before the Great Recession, the flood of credit policies caused a stock market bubble and speculation frenzy. Before the 2008 crisis, the Fed ‘s loose monetary policy, financial deregulation and subprime loans reached unprecedentedLevel of level.In essence, the two crises are after the industrial transformation, and the new growth point of growth is to expand consumption and investment demand through debt expansion and debt transfer methods in an attempt to solve the weakening of technological driving forces, decline in industrial profits, and production.Long-term problems such as surplus are eventually forced to shrink in a crisis.It can be seen that the economic impact brought about by this epidemic is different from the previous two global crises in terms of economic background, economic policy, and economic structure.Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Sauna and Yeenet that he has not seen a precedent of the global economic recession or the continued plunge of the financial market due to the pandemic pandemic.At present, the core factor affecting the fluctuations in the global market is the number of new cases of the epidemic.At present, the overseas epidemic situation is in an outbreak period, but with the escalation of the prevention and control measures of the governments of various countries, the trend of the epidemic situation will generally replicate the domestic model.From this perspective, the outbreak is still an exogenous short-term shock, and it is difficult to bring lasting impact on the global economy and financial markets.This is the biggest difference from the 2008 global financial crisis.However, the current overseas epidemic situation is still in the escalation stage, and countries are also taking measures to deal with it. In the short term, the global financial market will still be in a gradual transformation stage, and the downside risks are great. The security panic may continue to be at a high level.Pan Xiangdong said that from the appearance, the current global demand is shrinking rapidly and the global market growth is intensifying, which is the same as the 2008 financial crisis.However, in 2008, it was the financial crisis that led to shrinking wealth and changes in expectations, which led to the subsequent contraction of economic activity and changes in liquidity tensions, and everyone ‘s expectations followed.This time because of the epidemic, everyone’s economic activities must shrink. Only when the epidemic is completely lifted will everyone slowly resume their economic activities.Therefore, this time is completely different from the 2008 financial crisis.How to deal with shock?The agency expects that the Fed may be in the 2008 financial crisis in 2008, countries choose to implement loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, the Fed enters the interest rate cut cycle and implements an expanded loosening policy, and the seven major global growth rates simultaneously reduce interest rates and deposit reserve ratios.Start a 4 trillion investment plan.The impact of this epidemic on global demand has already emerged.The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 1% -1 last Tuesday.25%, the market’s expectation of further easing of the Fed continues to heat up. CME Fed observations show that the market expects the Fed to replace 0 on March 17-18.25% -0.5% is expected to reach 85%; replace 0-0 on April 28-29.25% is expected to reach 46.5%.International agencies expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by 0 before July this year.In addition to the Fed, Australia, Malaysia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Canada have gradually decided to cut interest rates.Wang Qing believes that global preliminary expectations are entering a new round of easing.The epidemic situation has exceeded 100 countries, and the macroeconomics of various countries are generally facing the direct impact of the epidemic; gradually, after the major economies are upgraded, the epidemic will be replaced by the industry chain to the world.This means that even if the country’s epidemic situation is controllable, it still faces the risk of rapid downside of short-term internal economic growth, and macro policies are needed to hedge.But the Fed has cut interest rates two more times to reach zero interest rates, while Europe, Japan and other countries have negative interest rates. How much room and effect can monetary policy have?Wang Qing said that the future impact of the epidemic on the global economy will mainly lead to the number and duration of new cases in large economies. Monetary easing may replace the impact intensity of the epidemic on the macro economy. After financial conditions have been relaxed, micro-entities such as enterprisesSurvival and operational capabilities will be improved, and total macroeconomic demand will be supported.However, considering the global monetary policy space is common after the global financial crisis, the next step of fiscal policy may be further strengthened, mainly including measures such as expansion of epidemic prevention expenditures and targeted tax cuts.How will China respond?Prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and moderation. China has temporarily not followed up on interest rate cuts.Pan Xiangdong pointed out that, for the sake of sound monetary policy, more attention should be paid to flexibility and moderation.So far, most of the conventional monetary policies are structural policies, which provide special credit lines for industries resisted by the epidemic, private and small and micro enterprises; adjust and improve corporate repayment and interest payment arrangements, increase loan extension, renew the loan, and appropriately reduce and exempt small loansMicro-enterprise loan interest rate; selective financial inclusion and targeted reduction of standards.In the next millennium, growth may continue to cut interest rates and standards, or even rule out lowering the benchmark deposit rate.The epidemic is now developing rapidly overseas. The epidemic will drag on the global economy and will in turn affect the Chinese economy.Zhongtai Securities Research pointed out that looking back on the international financial crisis, net exports dragged China’s GDP growth rate up to 3 in 2009.9 averages.According to the impact of the international financial crisis, if the GDP growth rate is included in the target 5.Between 5-6%, it means that investment and consumption will drive GDP growth to reach 9.4-9.9 averages.If only a 4-5% growth rate can be achieved in the first quarter, the pressure in the second and fourth quarters will be significantly amplified.Pan Xiangdong said that due to the different medical conditions in various countries, the attitudes and methods of responding to the epidemic are different, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemic situation has increased significantly.If overseas economies adopt similar isolation methods as China, the future overseas economic data may also decline as deeply as China ‘s PMI in February, and even this decline may take longer.Therefore, although the domestic economic supply capacity is recovering, the contradictory downward pressure on external demand in the future may cause a secondary shock to the domestic economy.In terms of domestic macro-policy, in addition to monetary policy, the proactive fiscal policy should be further active and promising. The scale of PSL investment may be expanded, and the scale of local special debt issuance may be expanded; a staged and targeted tax and fee reduction policy is also required, And does not exclude the issuance of special government bonds.In addition, we must play a key role in effective investment through infrastructure.In terms of industrial policy, we must accelerate economic transformation, and some traditional industries have been hit by breakthroughs. Emerging industries such as intelligent manufacturing, unmanned distribution, online consumption, and healthcare have shown strong growth potential.Sauna, Ye Wang Gu Zhijuan editor Li Weijia proofread Chen Diyan